Auto Transportation

Rising fuel prices, unstable financial markets and taxation changes with the apparent aim of getting us to use our cars less often (or at least pay more to use them) have been just some of the issues that have affected the automotive industry in the past 12 months. This article looks at what 2008 may hold for the automotive industry and road users in general.

The US economy and the resulting weakness of the dollar looks like it may well contribute to the price of crude oil continuing to rise as investors have been holding the commodity instead of dollars. This means that as the cost of a barrel of crude oil comes close to the $100 figure then so fuel prices have also continued to rise.

So do higher fuel costs mean we are likely to buy or use cars, vans and Lorries less in 2008? Well seemingly not based on a latest poll of motorists. Despite fuel prices increasing at alarming rates a whopping 79 percent of motorists questioned said they had not changed their petrol and fuel buying habits and had no plans to do so. In fact the motorists questioned said petrol prices would have to increase at even more alarming rates to stop them from filling up.

Environmental issues would it seem not be as important as governments throughout the world as over 1 in 3 motorists confirmed they had no plans to replace their vehicles for more environmentally friendly cars before 2010.

And so if motorists are seemingly unaffected by rising fuel costs and are prepared to continue driving despite increased road tax and the impact on the environment surely positive times are ahead for the industry in 2008?

Well before car manufacturers and dealers start doing cartwheels, caution would certainly be advised as whilst General Motors can seen promising performance in emerging markets they have seen big losses in both American and European markets.

And with the world economy in such an uncertain state as 2007 draws to a close 2008 could well see new car sales fall with used car sales increasing. Car sales and indeed sales of all types are also likely to increase via the internet in 2008 so car dealers (new and used) without an internet presence should really be looking at establishing themselves in this emerging marketplace.

And what of the actual motorist, what does 2008 have in store for us? Well how about further increases in vehicle tax, more toll roads, increased congestion charges and still a seeming lack of a viable alternative to road use through reliable, clean and safe public transport.

The good news for some motorists on one front is that whilst the government is seemingly do all they can to penalise the motorist, insurance premiums including car insurance, van insurance and motor trade insurance are pretty stable. In fact with such competition in the insurance industry the cost of insurance like combined motor trade insurance could even fall and savings could be made.

And motor traders who are looking to make savings on their motor trade insurance premiums in 2008 using a specialist insurance broker could well be the route to take to make sure they get the protection they need at a price that is right.

Bharatbook.com has announced the addition of “Freight Transport Report Brazil” (http://www.bharatbook.com/detail.asp?id=18598) to their offering.

Independent 5-year Freight Transport industry forecasts for Brazil.

Original Freight Transport market research and Freight Transport sector trend analysis for the Brazil Freight Transport industry.

Competitive intelligence, Brazilian Freight Transport company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Freight Transport companies in Brazil.

The Brazil Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2011; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Brazilian Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits of Reports

Benchmark It’s Independent 5-year Freight Transport Industry Forecasts on Brazil to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic Brazilian Freight Transport market.

Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Brazilian Freight Transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.

Exploit the Latest Competitive Brazilian Freight Transport intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Brazil.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of It’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering Freight Transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects, and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis of the state’s business environment, transport sector, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Business Environment Rankings

It’s regional comparative analysis of the transport sector, evaluating sector-specific issues alongside the broader Country Risk context; including sector growth, political and economic stability, the competitive environment and trade volume expansion.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the Freight Transport sector – road, rail, air, sea, logistics – including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

It 5-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Port freight total (tonnes mn); Seaborne freight (tonnes mn)

Riverborne freight (tonnes mn); Airport freight (tonnes mn)

Total traffic by mode (tonnes/km); Freight industry value (US$bn)

Contribution to GDP (%); Sector employment (‘000); Population growth (mn); Nominal GDP (US$bn); Real GDP growth (%)

Consumer price index (%y-o-y average); Total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn); Current account (US$bn); import and export value by goods category (US$bn, % of total), top trade destinations/ sources (US$bn, % of total).

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details and business activity.

Executive Summary

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Freight Transport Sector Of Brazil

In January 2007, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed setting aside another BRL1.34bn (US$638.2mn) for the North-South Railway in his new Growth Acceleration Package, or PAC. The package should help develop infrastructure immensely over the coming years. The North-South railway already runs from the northern Tocantins state city of Araguaina to Porto Franco in Maranhao state, where its tracks connect with the Carajas rail line run by Brazilian iron-ore giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD). The Carajas line links Porto Franco to Maranhao’s deep-water Port of Itaqui – a port that is likely to surpass the country’s deeply congested principal ports of Santos and Paranagua in future years to become Brazil’s No. 1 port, if the right funds are invested, said the National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA). If Lula’s proposal to allot an extra BRL1.3bn in government funds is approved by congress, the railway will extend another 358km from Araguaina to the Tocantins state capital of Palmas by 2009, said Andre Oliveira, the head of construction of VALEC, which is the government’s partner in the North-South railway. After that, more funds will be needed to connect the North-South Railway to its expected destination of Anapolis in Goias state, he added.

The completed Goias-Maranhao rail line, which will span more than 1,500km, is expected to carry 15mn tons of cargo annually. In our latest Brazil Freight Transport report, It concludes that, thanks to the performance of MRS Logística and other private sector freight rail operators, total freight carried can be expected to grow at an annual average rate of 8.8% over the 2007-2011 period.

Various factors support this prediction. We now expect annual Brazilian GDP growth to average 3.8% in the 2007-2011 period (up from 2.6% in the preceding five-year period). While this will underpin general freight demand, as a result of continuing commodity and mining growth, rail should enjoy a particularly favourable combination of strong demand and expanding capacity, as new investment goes into the operations of the privatised operators.

The overall freight picture will be encouraging. There continue to be no reliable statistics on Brazilian road freight haulage. However, based on It estimates, we expect freight carried to be growing somewhat more slowly than rail, at an average of around 5.7% per annum, because investment to improve and repair the highway network will take longer to have an effect. Despite the collapse of Varig and a slower year in 2006, we also see airfreight continuing to perform vigorously. We now expect the growth figure in 2007-2011 to be an annual average of 8.2%, compared to 3.2% in 2002-2006. Total tonnage handled by Brazil’s main seaports will rise by an average of 6.2% per annum in the forecast period, down on the 7.0% registered in the preceding five years. The main reason for this is that after the foreign trade and export boom peaked in 2004, we see both import and export growth moderating significantly in the next few years, when domestic consumption is likely to be the main engine of macroeconomic growth.

Brazil performs reasonably well in our freight transport industry business environment matrix, scoring above the regional average. Freight growth, infrastructure growth, the regulatory and competitive environment all score well. Economic and political risk is comparable to the Latin American peer group. The transport intensity index is a little below the regional average, although there is something of a question mark over the future dynamism of the country’s foreign trade. Foreign trade still represents only around 25% of GDP, although on the other hand the sheer geographical size of the country means there will be healthy internal demand for freight transport.

According to our latest estimates, the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$75.4bn in nominal terms by 2011, representing 6.4% of Brazil’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 4.26mn people, or 4.7% of the labour force, in 2006. We see these figures rising to 5.56mn – and 5.2% – by 2010.

For more information kindly visit: http://www.bharatbook.com/detail.asp?id=18598

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